The Recap
Every one of the 31matches has collapsed to a single result. Here's what actually happened, and how the model that called it all fared.
The scorecard
- Winners called
- 24/31
- Exact scorelines
- 4/31
- This exact bracket
- 1 in 3,037,040
Where the model missed
The model favored the actual winner in 24 of 31 matches. Of the 7 it got wrong, 4were priced between 35–50% — close enough to a coin flip that either result was always live. A model that's properly calibrated is supposed to lose those close to half the time. The other 3 were real shocks: single-digit-to-mid-teens odds that turned on one night going a certain way — a shootout, a giant-killing performance — the kind of variance an Elo-and-goals model prices as noise, because it has no way to see it coming.
Norwaydef.
Brazil1–2Round of 1614% shot
Paraguaydef.
Germany1–1Round of 3216% shot
Moroccodef.
Netherlands1–1Round of 3229% shot
Switzerlanddef.
Colombia0–0Round of 1639% shot
Mexicodef.
Ecuador2–0Round of 3245% shot- Spaindef.
Argentina1–0Final45% shot - Spaindef.
France0–2Semifinal49% shot
2,147,483,648 realities kicked off. 1 happened.
Every match is locked now, but Play Bracket doesn't care — it still lets you overwrite any result, including ones that already happened, because there's no spoiler left to protect. Chalk, Chaos, and Randomize are wide open again.
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